The Brexit polls are a mess, but we can still try and use them to predict the outcome. 

In few minutes polling stations in the UK will close (and my aeroplane will take off). The referendum has really taken a toll on me. I am genuinely sad by how anti EU many people are and how little hope many people have in the European project.

At the same time a horde of upbeat people who are forward looking and full of hope have also stepped forward and shown their face to support the remain vote.

But this divide the discussion has taken its toll on me recently and I have – to put it mildly – obsessed a little bit about the messy polls. In an attempt to see the light at the end of the tunnel I designed a little model that aimed to try and redistribute the “Don’t knows”. But as the figure below shows, in surveys, polls who have generally had many more uncertain voters have also tended to show the remain lead much smaller than polls with small number of “don’t knows”

Figure: polls with many don’t knows tend to show a small remain lead


So, using that information and a bit of guesswork modelling I have come up with a fairly bullish prediction for the outcome (perhaps this is wishful predicting, but I will stick with what my model as it gives such pleasant results).

Figure: 57% vote remain, 43% vote leave


I hope my optimistic – but honest – model will at least get winner right.

Eiki

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